Emergence of PTI as valid third option is no longer a myth as party scored almost 8 million votes in its first passionate appearance on political spectrum; however post election scenario remained really unfortunate for PTI. From the moment Khan suffered from that deadly tumble in Lahore; PTI seems struggling & still struggling to recover.
The recent challenge appears rather tough as court summoned Khan for contempt. In this Sharamnaak encounter; judiciary served notice on khan claiming former is running furious camp again blaming ECP & SC for rigging in recent general & presidential elections; thereby maligning the apex court of land.
This piece only assesses political risk faced by PTI in all possible outcomes of this case & what strategy will be favorable for future course of PTI
1) Khan refuses to apologize on 28th August & court charges him for contempt.
He can not only loose his current presence in national assembly but his political future might well be on stake.
Failure of succession planning / alternate leadership is evident in PTI as witnessed in Khan’s injury. The strategic committees were dissolved on eve of Intra party elections and not reconstituted to date. PTI will struggle to mobilize masses.
This loss will resultantly give free ride to PML-N in national assembly; Khan who promised fierce opposition won’t be able to take political mileage of existing seats.
2) Political cost of Tsunami March
The narrative of Tsunami March is not only an over enthusiasm but also reflective of immaturity in youth of PTI. Though new government is nothing but utter disappointment still the mandate is fresh; political pundits and even Imran himself promised to give 90 days’ grace period to Nawaz & Co.
Assuming PTI tigers are ready to face the music and finally getting an opportunity to create a “Tahreer” on captain’s call; the possible unrest will be too critical to handle given the security situation. Assuming further more that PTI will be able to withstand all sorts of heat & rift, the aggression will not be static and there can be brute force attack on either Supreme Court or Parliament.
Even assuming these sort of crazy ideas clearly paint the picture of political suicide by PTI. Traditional thugs can win desired label to permanently malign PTI.
3) Khan, contempt, KP & political cost
Future of KP will determine fate of PTI in national politics; while Khan’s team struggles to achieve concrete changes rather seems caught up in paper work, any political unrest will be completely off putting for change team, focusing their energy on protests than delivering change, not to mention CM KP is also Chief Organizer / General Secretary of PTI.
The situation will be ideal for the notorious lusty Mulla Fazal ul Rehamn to play his dirty role to malign provincial government and create chaos with Federal government on his back. This can well be end of Tsunami in KP
Millions voted for N just because Khan had no experience of governance & if PTI blows this one too, then they have learnt nothing from last elections as “Immature” tag won’t be worn out off Khan’s shirt.
4) Khan, contempt, Punjab & political cost
Punjab the real battle field for power; won’t react more favorably for PTI in case of rift between CJ & Khan. The province is waiting for economic turnaround and hopes of N voters are still alive. A major unrest will be assumed hindrance and voters will give benefit of the doubt to king of gimmicks; even worst, PTI can be viewed as new PPP by hardcore N voters. Only an improved governance model in KP can turn fortunes in favor of PTI in Punjab.
5) Final Words
Summing it up, PTI should bring Tsunami March against rigging, only as last possible option given all courses of justice denied. Before going an extra risky mile; they need to take all possible mitigating measures, ensuring survival of party & khan himself on political spectrum & making sure governance related matters won’t be affected in KP.
If CJ is pro N & his target is tempting Khan to commit political suicide; PTI should act wisely and play it cool.
Assuming democracy prevails, Khan’s future heavily relies on success in KP where failure is no option.
Khan is still hope for millions of Pakistanis; online supporters need to think it through to outsmart rusty politicians.